DECISION SUPPORTED
Is the market attractive, genuinely accessible and consistent with our capabilities?
03 · Assess
Analysing a market without confusing size, access and ability to win
DECISION QUESTION
Is the market attractive, genuinely accessible and consistent with our capabilities?The analysis separates theoretical, addressable, accessible and winnable market, then makes sources, uncertainties and sensitivities visible.
UNDERSTAND
What is a market analysis?
A market analysis establishes what a market is worth to a given organisation: its size, growth, competitive structure, customers and barriers, then the share the organisation can genuinely win there. It serves a decision: enter, strengthen a presence, wait or walk away.
The term marketing analysis is also used when the analysis covers the company’s environment in the broad sense: macro-environment, competition, customers and internal capabilities. Market research, for its part, refers to collecting data from customers; it feeds the analysis without replacing it.
In one sentence: measure what the market is worth, what it costs to access and what can be won there, before deciding.
How to do a market analysis: the seven-step method
Each step answers one question. The step title leads to the page that details it, the links below it to the methods that support it.
- 01
Frame the question
Which decision should the analysis inform, for whom and by when?
- 02
Define the market
Which need, customers, geography and alternatives fall within the scope?
MethodsDefine the marketCriteria
- 03
Measure its size
What is the market worth, estimated by two independent routes, and on what sources?
- 04
Analyse the environment
Which political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal changes could transform it?
MethodsPESTEL analysisWeak signals
- 05
Analyse the competition
Who captures the value, who competes for the same customers, and what does entry cost?
MethodsPorter’s five forcesCompetitorsEntry barriersValue chain
- 06
Understand the customers
Which groups of customers have distinct needs, and which are poorly served?
MethodsNeeds-based segmentationSegment attractivenessCustomer value map
- 07
Conclude and decide
Is the market attractive, accessible and within our reach, and what is decided?
MethodsAttractivenessAbility to winSWOT analysisChoosing a country with CAGE distance
Example: a market analysis step by step
Simulated case, the one in the site’s complete dossier: a provider of operational continuity services for SMEs. The figures illustrate the method, not a real market.
- 01
Frame the question
Decide which markets to invest in over the next two years.
- 02
Define the market
Operational continuity services for SMEs, in-house alternatives included.
- 03
Measure its size
Top-down route: €80m published, 27% of it within the scope, i.e. €21.6m. Bottom-up route: 12 000 accounts at €1 800 a year, i.e. €21.6m. The two routes converge; the 27% share remains an assumption to document.
- 04
Analyse the environment
Tighter regulation makes interruptions more costly: demand for guaranteed continuity is rising.
- 05
Analyse the competition
Low-price platforms are arriving in the mass market, where the entry barrier is low.
- 06
Understand the customers
Four segments emerge: regulated industry, multi-site services, the public sector, startups.
- 07
Conclude and decide
Regulated industry first, multi-site services in a second wave; startups and the mass market are set aside.
Decision simulator
Test the sensitivity before looking at the ranking.
The case is illustrative. Change attractiveness, access, capability and level of evidence: the recommendation changes without ever hiding the assumptions.
Lab · Demonstration case
Score v0.1PROFILE TO COMPARE
FragileConditionalInvestigate
63
READINGConditional decision
Close two evidence gaps. The score does not replace judgement.
Decisions supported
What the page really helps to choose.
- 01Compare several markets
- 02Choose the next check
- 03Enter, wait or walk away
- 04Distinguish potential from decision
ORIGINAL ASSET
Attractiveness score
Calculates three separate scores and shows how an assumption or the confidence in the evidence changes the score and the ranking.
INPUTSMarket profileAttractivenessAccessibilityAbility to winConfidence in the evidence
→OUTPUTSComposite scoreReading of the optionAdjusted scores of three marketsCSV dataset
Decision reference
Move from the subject to the choice that depends on it.
ASSET TO USE
Attractiveness score: Calculates three separate scores and shows how an assumption or the confidence in the evidence changes the score and the ranking.
NEXT ELEMENT TO EXAMINE
Define the marketExplore →32 · ORIGINAL ASSET
Compare three markets without confusing potential with a decision
Comparative dataset
The adjusted score multiplies the average of attractiveness, access and ability to win by the evidence confidence level.
Download the CSV dataset ↓Market Alpha
5.79/10 adjustedConfidence in the evidence: 80% · raw score 7.23
Market Beta
5.46/10 adjustedConfidence in the evidence: 70% · raw score 7.80
Market Gamma
3.10/10 adjustedConfidence in the evidence: 50% · raw score 6.20
Teaching case · simulated data · no real-world market conclusion.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Compare my markets using explicit criteria
Go deeper
The next questions to address.
Move from the notion to its application, then to the decision that depends on it.
01
Define the market
Which economic unit is being measured, for which needs, customers, offers and boundaries?
02Market size
How can the value or the volume of a market be estimated with incomplete data?
03TAM, SAM, SOM
Which share of the total market actually matches the offer, the coverage and the available capabilities?
04Attractiveness
Does the market offer sufficient economic potential given its structure and its risks?
05Entry barriers
Which obstacles slow down, raise the cost of or prevent a credible entry?
06Value chain
Where is value created, captured and lost between the activities and the actors?
07Ability to win
Does the organisation have a credible path to convert the opportunity into a defensible position?
08Qualify sources
What level of confidence should be given to a market data point or claim?
01Explicit scope
Unit, horizon and boundaries visible.
02Qualified evidence
Source, date, method and confidence.
03Sensitivity tested
Weights and assumptions that tip the result.
04Review planned
Signal, threshold and owner.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION