DECISION SUPPORTED
Is the market attractive, genuinely accessible and consistent with our capabilities?
03 · Assess
Market analysis without confusing size, access and ability to win
Decision simulator
Test sensitivity before looking at the ranking.
The example is illustrative. Compare options on the same horizon, keep access and ability to win separate from market attractiveness, and vary the least certain evidence. A ranking is useful only when the assumptions that can reverse it remain visible.
Lab · Demonstration case
Score v0.1PROFILE TO COMPARE
FragileConditionalInvestigate
63
READINGConditional decision
Close two evidence gaps. The score does not replace arbitration.
DECISIONS SUPPORTED
Is the market attractive, genuinely accessible and consistent with our capabilities?
- 01Compare several markets
- 02Prioritise due diligence
- 03Enter, wait or decline
- 04Set an investment threshold
ORIGINAL ASSET
Attractiveness score
Calculates three separate scores and shows how an assumption or weighting changes the ranking.
INPUTSCriteriaValuesWeightsSourcesConfidence
→OUTPUTSAttractivenessAccessibilityAbility to winSensitivities
Decision checkpoint
Move from a market topic to the choice that depends on it.
ASSET TO USE
Attractiveness score: Calculates three separate scores and shows how an assumption or weighting changes the ranking.
NEXT ITEM TO INVESTIGATE
Define the marketExplore →32 · ORIGINAL ASSET
Compare three markets without confusing potential with a decision
Comparative dataset
The adjusted score multiplies the average of attractiveness, access and ability to win by the evidence confidence level.
Download the CSV dataset ↓Market Alpha
5.79/10 adjustedEvidence confidence : 80 % · raw score 7.23
Market Beta
5.46/10 adjustedEvidence confidence : 70 % · raw score 7.80
Market Gamma
3.10/10 adjustedEvidence confidence : 50 % · raw score 6.20
Teaching case · simulated data · no real-world market conclusion.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Compare my markets using explicit criteria
MARKET ANALYSIS PATH
Build the comparison without skipping a control.
Each page answers a distinct question: boundary, evidence, attractiveness, barriers, value chain and ability to win. Their conclusions must use the same scope and review date.
01
Define the market
Which economic unit is being measured, for which needs, customers, offers and boundaries?
02Market size
How can the value or volume of a market be estimated when the available data are incomplete?
03TAM, SAM and SOM
Which opportunity is theoretical, serviceable and realistically obtainable?
04Attractiveness
Attractive for whom, under which option and compared with what?
05Entry barriers
What must be overcome before the offer can reach and serve the market?
06Value chain
Where is value created, captured and controlled along the route to the buyer?
07Ability to win
What makes the selected organisation more likely to win than credible alternatives?
08Qualify sources
What can this source support, and what remains unknown?
01Explicit scope
Unit, horizon and boundaries are visible.
02Qualified evidence
Source, date, method and confidence are recorded.
03Sensitivity tested
Weights and assumptions that reverse the result are known.
04Review planned
Signal, threshold, date and owner are named.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION