Frame my decision · 5 min ↗

Decision concept

Segment attractiveness: assessing the value of a precise target

What must be established

A useful analysis keeps its controls visible.

  1. 01

    Measure the segment with a stable definition and unit.

  2. 02

    Separate external potential from the organisation’s own capability.

  3. 03

    Compare the segment with the alternatives and the opportunity cost.

RESULT OBTAINED

An explainable score, a value range and the decisive gaps in evidence.

Decision reference

Make the next choice more explicit.

DECISION SUPPORTED

Is the segment large, dynamic, profitable and accessible enough to justify a dedicated strategy?

DELIVERABLE TO KEEP

An explainable score, a value range and the decisive gaps in evidence.

NEXT ELEMENT TO EXAMINE

Marketing segmentationExplore →

27 · ORIGINAL ASSET

Bounded cohort LTV to compare a segment

E2 cohort model

The calculation discounts the expected contribution month by month over an explicit horizon. It informs a comparison without turning a ratio into a priority rule.

Download the scenarios as CSV ↓
Discounted contribution LTV€6,695
Descriptive LTV / CAC0.98×
Discounted CAC paybackBeyond the horizon
Annual retention82.0%
Active share at the horizon37.1%

Descriptive comparison: no universal threshold on its own can prioritise or rule out this segment.

Mechanical sensitivity, with no probability assigned to the scenarios
ScenarioRuleBounded LTVLTV / CACCAC payback
Mechanical constraintRevenue -15%, churn +5 points, cost to serve +20%€4,6840.69×Beyond the horizon
Displayed inputsNo adjustment€6,6950.98×Beyond the horizon
Mechanical easingRevenue +10%, churn -5 points, cost to serve -10%€8,5361.26×41 months

Method and limits. Monthly contribution = annual revenue × gross margin / 12 - annual cost to serve / 12. Each month is weighted by cohort survival, then discounted. The horizon bounds the LTV. Churn is assumed constant; reactivations, expansions, unpaid invoices and fixed costs are excluded. Replace the simulated inputs with observed cohorts and revise the model if retention or cost to serve changes.

Teaching case · simulated data · no real-world market conclusion.

MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION

Build a segmentation that makes it possible to choose

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In the same pathway

Continue the decision.

The method clarifies the reasoning, the tool applies the calculation and the use case links it all to a real situation.

01

Marketing segmentation

Does the split serve to adapt execution or to choose genuinely different strategies?

Open →02

Criteria

Which variables separate groups that call for different strategies?

Open →03

Prioritise segments

Which segments deserve investment, experimentation, monitoring or renunciation?

Open →04

Segmentation, targeting and positioning

How to link observable segments to a priority target and then to a genuinely differentiating position?

Open →

MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION

Build a segmentation that makes it possible to choose

Build my segmentation ↗

RETURN TO THE DECISION SYSTEM

See the canonical definition of marketing strategy→
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