RESULT OBTAINED
03 · Qualify sources
Qualify market sources: decide what a number can support
What must be established
A useful analysis leaves its controls visible.
- 01
Match each source to a precise claim and decision use.
- 02
Check method, scope, date, unit and incentive to publish.
- 03
Keep contradictions and missing evidence visible.
Decision checkpoint
Make the next choice explicit.
DECISION SUPPORTED
What can this source support, and what remains unknown?
DELIVERABLE TO RETAIN
A source register linking claims, confidence, limitations and next verification.
NEXT ITEM TO INVESTIGATE
Define the marketExplore →Set the decision boundary
Start with the claim to support: market boundary, size, buyer need, barrier, competitor activity or capability. A source that is credible for one claim may be irrelevant for another because its population, period or method differs.
- Decision owner
- Scope and horizon
- Comparable alternatives
Make evidence and calculation inspectable
Record origin, publication date, collection method, unit, coverage, transformation and potential incentive. Compare independent sources when possible and preserve unresolved differences instead of selecting the most convenient figure.
- Source and date
- Unit and calculation
- Known uncertainty
Keep a reopening rule
Set a refresh date and the observation that would make the source obsolete or insufficient. The register should state what additional evidence is required before a decision changes status.
- Material signal
- Decision effect
- Owner and review date
Application protocol
Turn the method into a reviewable decision record.
The page is complete only when another reviewer can reproduce the boundary, trace the evidence and understand what would change the conclusion.
Frame before measuring
Name the owner, decision, alternatives, unit, geography and horizon before collecting figures. This prevents a convenient source or familiar category from silently defining the problem.
- Decision and owner
- Comparable options
- Unit, boundary and horizon
Separate observation from judgement
Record every observation with source, date, method and unit. Keep transformation rules, scores and weights apart from the evidence so that disagreement can target the right layer.
- Observed evidence
- Calculation convention
- Assumption and confidence
Plan the reopening rule
State the signal, threshold, owner and review date that would reopen the choice. A robust conclusion is conditional and operational; it is not made permanent by a polished score.
- Material signal
- Decision threshold
- Owner and review date
Resources
Reuse the method and check its foundations.
- UK Government, The AQuA Book (opens in a new tab)Reference used to document assumptions, scope and the limits of market analysis. Useful for transparency, uncertainty, validation and auditability of analytical evidence.
- OECD, Competition Assessment Toolkit (opens in a new tab)Reference used to document assumptions, scope and the limits of market analysis. Useful for transparency, uncertainty, validation and auditability of analytical evidence.
01Explicit scope
Unit, horizon and boundaries are visible.
02Qualified evidence
Source, date, method and confidence are recorded.
03Sensitivity tested
Weights and assumptions that reverse the result are known.
04Review planned
Signal, threshold, date and owner are named.
RETURN TO THE DECISION SYSTEM
See the canonical definition of marketing strategy→