01 · Strategic assumption
WHAT TO CHECK
A useful assumption specifies who, what mechanism, which scope and which period are concerned. General statements such as ‘customers will value it’ cannot guide a test until they are made observable.
Evidence may confirm, weaken or leave an assumption unresolved. The register records the source, method, date and remaining uncertainty rather than treating an indication as proof.
An assumption matters only when the decision has a defined response. A failure can lead to a narrower target, a different option, more research or a pause; it should not silently remain in the model.
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Use the question “What conditions must hold for the selected option to create the expected value?” as a contract: name the owner, deadline, scope and alternatives before collecting more material. A strategic assumption links an uncertain assertion to expected evidence, a confidence level and an invalidation signal. Record what is deliberately outside scope, who can challenge the framing and what consequence follows from postponement. This prevents an attractive framework, actor list or market story from silently replacing the decision that the analysis is meant to support.
LIMIT
