RESULT OBTAINED
Decision concept
Strategic assumption: making testable what the decision presupposes
What must be established
A useful analysis keeps its controls visible.
- 01
Write a precise claim, bounded by a scope and a horizon.
- 02
Define the observation that would confirm or weaken it.
- 03
Name its effect on the decision if it turns out to be false.
Decision reference
Make the next choice more explicit.
DECISION SUPPORTED
Which conditions must be true for the chosen option to create the expected value?
DELIVERABLE TO KEEP
A register of assumptions prioritised by impact, uncertainty and cost of verification.
NEXT ELEMENT TO EXAMINE
Pre-mortem and red teamExplore →01 · ORIGINAL ASSET
Register of high-impact assumptions
Downloadable template
Prioritise assumptions with the Impact × Uncertainty formula, then attach evidence and a review rule to each one.
Download the CSV register ↓Priority=Impact×Uncertainty
| ID | Assumption | Impact | Uncertainty | Priority | Expected evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H-01 | The multi-site segment will pay €1,800 a year | 5/5 | 4/5 | 20 | 8 pricing interviews |
| H-02 | The partner shortens time to access by 6 months | 4/5 | 3/5 | 12 | 2 compared pilots |
| H-03 | The activation rate will exceed 35% | 4/5 | 5/5 | 20 | Cohort of 50 accounts |
Teaching case · simulated data · no real-world market conclusion.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Produce a testable decision mandate
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Produce a testable decision mandate
RETURN TO THE DECISION SYSTEM
See the canonical definition of marketing strategy→