Choose by decision, not appearance
A scorecard, map or template is useful when it answers a named question for a named owner. State the consequence of the result before filling in the tool.
- Decision supported
- User and deadline
- Expected action
05 · Tools
Interactive decision-support tools
WHAT TO CHECK
A calculation, map, chart or decision note that can be checked and reused.
- 01Define inputs, units and missing values.
- 02Expose calculation rules and weights.
- 03Keep scenarios, sensitivities and result versions.
Make the result reproducible
Keep formulas, sources, dates, units, missing-value rules and weights with the result. Pedagogical examples illustrate a protocol; they are not findings about a real market.
- Formula
- Provenance
- Missing values
Build revision into use
A useful output says what would change it: a threshold, a better source, a new scenario or a changed scope. Preserve the version of the inputs and the final decision.
- Review threshold
- Input version
- Decision trace
TOOL SELECTION PROTOCOL
State the decision contract
Use the question “Which tool produces a result that can be checked and used again for this decision?” as a contract: name the owner, deadline, scope and alternatives before collecting more material. Select a tool by the decision it supports, its input quality and the output that the team must retain. Record what is deliberately outside scope, who can challenge the framing and what consequence follows from postponement. This prevents an attractive framework, actor list or market story from silently replacing the decision that the analysis is meant to support.
- Owner and deadline
- Comparable alternatives
- Explicit boundary
- Cost of delay
TOOL SELECTION PROTOCOL
Build an inspectable evidence register
For every material statement, retain the original source, publication date, observation period, method, unit and relevant population. Distinguish observed facts, calculated estimates, interview judgements and assumptions. Connect the register to the promised output: A calculation, map, chart or decision note that can be checked and reused. Missing or contradictory evidence remains visible with a responsible owner and a collection action; it is never converted into certainty merely to complete the page.
- Primary source
- Method and unit
- Confidence
- Evidence gap
TOOL SELECTION PROTOCOL
Apply one operating convention
Define the rules before applying the analysis: inclusion criteria, identifiers, comparison set, calculation or coding convention, treatment of missing values and version date. Reproduce the same convention across every option or actor. Use the page checks as acceptance tests, beginning with “Define inputs, units and missing values.” A conclusion is usable only when another practitioner can reconstruct how the inputs became the displayed result and identify where judgement entered.
- Stable definitions
- Common comparison
- Versioned inputs
- Reproducible transformation
TOOL SELECTION PROTOCOL
Test uncertainty and rival interpretations
Challenge the preferred interpretation with at least one plausible alternative, contradictory observation and sensitivity test. Separate association from prediction and never infer intent, power or causality from a position, score or visual proximity alone. The standing limit remains: A tool informs a choice; it never replaces judgement or the accountability of the decision-maker. State which uncertainty is most likely to reverse the conclusion and what additional observation would discriminate between the competing explanations.
- Alternative explanation
- Counterevidence
- Sensitivity
- Decision-changing uncertainty
TOOL SELECTION PROTOCOL
Record the action and reopening rule
Turn the analysis into a dated decision record rather than a static page. Preserve the selected option, rejected alternatives, objections, accepted risks and first reversible action. Name the signal, numerical or qualitative threshold, review owner and review date that will confirm, adapt, pause or reopen the decision. Link every later update to its author and reason so that the history remains understandable when evidence or market conditions change.
- Decision trace
- First reversible step
- Review threshold
- Named owner
TOOL SELECTION PROTOCOL
Choose the tool from the decision
Begin with “Which tool produces a result that can be checked and used again for this decision?” and select the smallest tool that reduces the decisive uncertainty. Record the decision stage, expected output, owner and time available. A familiar template is not automatically appropriate; the choice must explain what it clarifies and what it leaves unresolved.
- Decision stage
- Decisive uncertainty
- Expected output
- Unresolved question
TOOL SELECTION PROTOCOL
Prepare comparable inputs
Define the data, units, period, population and evidence quality before opening a calculator or matrix. Apply the same convention to each option. Missing information remains visible, and examples are marked as simulated so they cannot be confused with evidence about a real market.
- Common convention
- Units
- Evidence quality
- Simulated example
TOOL SELECTION PROTOCOL
Read the output without overclaiming
Treat A calculation, map, chart or decision note that can be checked and reused. as decision support, not an automatic verdict. Explain uncertainty, sensitivity and any binding constraint separately from the score or visual. Preserve a credible alternative interpretation and identify the new evidence that would change the recommendation.
- Decision support
- Uncertainty
- Constraint
- Change signal
TOOL SELECTION PROTOCOL
Archive and review the use
Save the input version, parameters, output, selected action and review date together. After the decision, compare expected and observed results without rewriting the original rationale. Reopen the analysis when a threshold, assumption or material external condition changes.
- Version
- Decision record
- Review date
- Reopening rule
LIMIT
A tool informs a choice; it never replaces judgement or the accountability of the decision-maker.
- UK Government, The AQuA Book (opens in a new tab)Official framework for documenting data, assumptions, uncertainty and assurance proportionate to an analysis.