Choose by decision function
A method is useful only if it changes a defined choice. Frame the owner, horizon, alternatives and expected output before selecting a framework.
- Decision to support
- Required evidence
- Expected output
05 · Methods
Living strategic methods
WHAT TO CHECK
A method selected for its function, linked to an application tool and a distinct use case.
- 01Start with the decision, not a familiar matrix.
- 02Check the data, units and assumptions required.
- 03Challenge the result with a competing method or scenario.
Expose the operating convention
Document definitions, calculation rules, weights, missing values and uncertainty. A neat score without a convention is not reproducible evidence.
- Units and perimeter
- Weights and assumptions
- Sensitivity
Plan the review
State which new fact, threshold or contradiction would make the result obsolete. Keep the final human decision separate from the analytical aid.
- Review trigger
- Owner
- Date
VALIDATION DOSSIER
State the decision contract
Use the question “Which method should be used now, for which decision and with which limits?” as a contract: name the owner, deadline, scope and alternatives before collecting more material. Compare methods by their decision function rather than their name; make inputs, assumptions and review conditions visible. Record what is deliberately outside scope, who can challenge the framing and what consequence follows from postponement. This prevents an attractive framework, actor list or market story from silently replacing the decision that the analysis is meant to support.
- Owner and deadline
- Comparable alternatives
- Explicit boundary
- Cost of delay
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Build an inspectable evidence register
For every material statement, retain the original source, publication date, observation period, method, unit and relevant population. Distinguish observed facts, calculated estimates, interview judgements and assumptions. Connect the register to the promised output: A method selected for its function, linked to an application tool and a distinct use case. Missing or contradictory evidence remains visible with a responsible owner and a collection action; it is never converted into certainty merely to complete the page.
- Primary source
- Method and unit
- Confidence
- Evidence gap
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Apply one operating convention
Define the rules before applying the analysis: inclusion criteria, identifiers, comparison set, calculation or coding convention, treatment of missing values and version date. Reproduce the same convention across every option or actor. Use the page checks as acceptance tests, beginning with “Start with the decision, not a familiar matrix.” A conclusion is usable only when another practitioner can reconstruct how the inputs became the displayed result and identify where judgement entered.
- Stable definitions
- Common comparison
- Versioned inputs
- Reproducible transformation
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Test uncertainty and rival interpretations
Challenge the preferred interpretation with at least one plausible alternative, contradictory observation and sensitivity test. Separate association from prediction and never infer intent, power or causality from a position, score or visual proximity alone. The standing limit remains: A method structures reasoning; it does not produce a recommendation on its own. State which uncertainty is most likely to reverse the conclusion and what additional observation would discriminate between the competing explanations.
- Alternative explanation
- Counterevidence
- Sensitivity
- Decision-changing uncertainty
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Record the action and reopening rule
Turn the analysis into a dated decision record rather than a static page. Preserve the selected option, rejected alternatives, objections, accepted risks and first reversible action. Name the signal, numerical or qualitative threshold, review owner and review date that will confirm, adapt, pause or reopen the decision. Link every later update to its author and reason so that the history remains understandable when evidence or market conditions change.
- Decision trace
- First reversible step
- Review threshold
- Named owner
LIMIT
A method structures reasoning; it does not produce a recommendation on its own.
- UK Government, The AQuA Book (opens in a new tab)Official guidance on assumptions, uncertainty, validation and analytical assurance.