DECISION SUPPORTED
Which observable changes can invalidate an assumption, open an option or trigger a review?
10 · Monitor
Linking weak signals to the decisions they can change
DECISION QUESTION
Which observable changes can invalidate an assumption, open an option or trigger a review?Each signal has a source, a date, an entity, an affected assumption, an impact, a maturity and a credibility.
Decisions supported
What the page really helps to choose.
- 01Define the signals to monitor
- 02Qualify a potential disruption
- 03Prioritise the signals to investigate
- 04Open an exploratory option
ORIGINAL ASSET
Three-horizon radar
Distributes the qualified signals across three horizons, each linked to a different decision, commitment and level of evidence.
INPUTSQualified signalsHorizonArea monitoredLinked decisionLevel of commitment
→OUTPUTSSignals per horizonTypical decisionAreas to monitorCSV radar
Decision reference
Move from the subject to the choice that depends on it.
ASSET TO USE
Three-horizon radar: Distributes the qualified signals across three horizons, each linked to a different decision, commitment and level of evidence.
NEXT ELEMENT TO EXAMINE
Weak signalsExplore →Explore several futures without announcing a forecast
Foresight organises possible, plausible and preferable futures. It does not give the probability of an event. Its value comes from testing assumptions and preparing options that remain useful under several trajectories.
- Explicit horizon
- Critical uncertainties
- Contrasting futures
- Associated option
Make each signal auditable
A usable signal keeps its direct source, its date, the entity concerned, the observed fact and the affected assumption. The numbers displayed by the radar are simulated data as long as they do not refer to a dated and versioned register.
- Source
- Date
- Observation
- Affected assumption
Set the monitoring rule before the alert
Maturity, impact and credibility direct attention, but do not produce a decision on their own. The dossier specifies the threshold that triggers an inquiry, opens an option or requires re-examining the orientation, as well as the owner of that review.
- Threshold
- Action
- Owner
- Review date
39 · ORIGINAL ASSET
Three-horizon radar
Signal timeline
Signal density is not enough: each horizon carries a different decision, commitment and level of proof.
Download the radar ↓H1 · 0–18 months
Committed decisions14 qualified signals
Rules and hiring
H2 · 18–36 months
Options to fund9 qualified signals
Technologies and alliances
H3 · 3–7 years
Explorations5 qualified signals
Disruptions and new uses
Teaching case · simulated data · no real-world market conclusion.
Sources and foundations
Check the definitions and the limits of the method.
- European Commission, Strategic foresight (opens in a new tab)Institutional definition of foresight and its methods, distinct from prediction.
- OECD, Strategic Foresight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policy, 2025 (opens in a new tab)Five-step method for examining disruptions, building scenarios and testing strategies.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Produce a testable decision mandate
Go deeper
The next questions to address.
Move from the notion to its application, then to the decision that depends on it.
01
Weak signals
Which still marginal observation could herald an important change for the decision?
02Morphological analysis
How to explore several futures without adding up incompatible assumptions?
03Delphi method
How to organise several rounds of anonymised expertise when data is incomplete and opinions are scattered?
04Structural analysis
Which variables really steer the system under study, before scenarios are built?
01Explicit scope
Unit, horizon and boundaries visible.
02Qualified evidence
Source, date, method and confidence.
03Sensitivity tested
Weights and assumptions that tip the result.
04Review planned
Signal, threshold and owner.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION