Connect weak signals to the decisions they can change

Explore several futures without claiming a forecast

Foresight organises possible, plausible and preferable futures; it does not assign an event a probability. Its value lies in testing assumptions and preparing options that remain useful across several trajectories.

• Explicit horizon
• Critical uncertainties
• Contrasting futures
• Linked option

Make every signal auditable

A usable signal retains its direct source, date, relevant entity, observed fact and affected assumption. Radar figures remain simulated data until they point to a dated, versioned record.

• Source
• Date
• Observation
• Affected assumption

Set the monitoring rule before the alert

Maturity, impact and credibility guide attention but do not decide on their own. The dossier states the threshold that triggers investigation, opens an option or requires a review, as well as the owner of that review.

• Threshold
• Action
• Owner
• Review date

FORESIGHT REVIEW

Bound the system, horizon and critical uncertainties

State the decision, geographic and sector boundary, actors, time horizon and baseline before collecting signals. Separate predetermined developments from uncertainties capable of producing genuinely different futures. A scenario is a coherent conditional description, not a probability estimate or a prediction. Keep incompatible assumptions visible and construct contrasts that are strong enough to change an option, resource commitment or monitoring priority rather than merely changing the tone of one preferred future.

• Decision boundary
• Explicit horizon
• Critical uncertainty
• Contrasting futures

Use several plausible futures to test choices without presenting a forecast.

Trace every signal to an observation and an affected assumption

Retain the direct source, publication date, observed fact, relevant entity, maturity and contradictory evidence for each signal. Distinguish a weak signal from a trend, event, hypothesis and interpretation. Explain which active assumption, scenario variable or option the observation could affect and why. Radar scores are prioritisation conventions, not objective probabilities; their scale, coding rule and confidence must remain inspectable and stable across review periods.

• Direct source
• Observed fact
• Affected assumption
• Coding convention

Use several plausible futures to test choices without presenting a forecast.

Link scenarios to options, triggers and learning

Evaluate every material option across the same futures, criteria, units and constraints. Identify unacceptable outcomes, regret, reversibility, lead time and capabilities that must exist before commitment. Define the signal and threshold that trigger investigation, accelerate an option, adapt the plan or reopen the decision, together with an owner and date. At review, compare expected and observed developments without rewriting the original rationale, then update the evidence register and next learning action.

• Common option test
• Reversibility
• Trigger and threshold
• Dated review