RESULT OBTAINED
Decision concept
Market attractiveness: comparing the potential without hiding the risks
What must be established
A useful analysis keeps its controls visible.
- 01
Separate structural, cyclical and company-specific factors.
- 02
Avoid double counting between correlated criteria.
- 03
Test the ranking with several weightings and scenarios.
Decision reference
Make the next choice more explicit.
DECISION SUPPORTED
Does the market offer sufficient economic potential given its structure and its risks?
DELIVERABLE TO KEEP
A score explained by its components, its evidence and its tipping thresholds.
NEXT ELEMENT TO EXAMINE
Entry barriersExplore →Separate market potential, accessibility and ability to win
Attractiveness describes external market characteristics: demand, growth, accessible margin, stability, competition and risk. Access depends on channels, rules and lead times. Ability to win depends on the organisation. Keep the three diagnostics separate so that an internal strength cannot artificially offset an unfavourable market.
- External attractiveness
- Accessibility
- Ability to win
- Strategic fit
Document the illustrative calculation
The tool calculates an illustrative score out of 100: 10 × [0.30 × growth + 0.30 × margin + 0.20 × (10 − competition) + 0.20 × (10 − risk)]. Scores from 0 to 10 and weights are working assumptions, not observations. In a real analysis, every score needs a definition, unit, source, date and rationale.
- Common 0-to-10 scale
- Weights sum to 1
- Inverted criteria are explicit
- Simulated page data
Test sensitivity and the review threshold
Recalculate the ranking with several weight sets and low, central and high values. If a plausible one-point change or a ten-point weight shift reverses the priority, the result is fragile and requires more evidence. Reopen the decision when a source changes, an access constraint moves or a scenario changes the ranking.
- Low, central and high scenarios
- Alternative weights
- Correlated criteria controlled
- Unstable ranking flagged
04 · ORIGINAL ASSET
Risk-sensitive market attractiveness index
Multi-criteria calculation
Growth and margin add potential; competitive intensity and structural risk reduce the score.
Attractiveness score65/100
30% growth + 30% margin + 20% inverted competition + 20% inverted risk.
Teaching case · simulated data · no real-world market conclusion.
- European Commission, Composite Indicators (opens in a new tab)Institutional framework for construction, weighting, robustness and cautious interpretation of composite indicators.
- OECD, Competition Assessment Toolkit, volume 2 (opens in a new tab)Official guidance for examining potential competition, barriers and structure rather than isolated potential.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Compare my markets using explicit criteria
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Compare my markets using explicit criteria
RETURN TO THE DECISION SYSTEM
See the canonical definition of marketing strategy→