RESULT OBTAINED
Main pathway
Glossary of strategic decision-making
What must be established
A useful analysis keeps its controls visible.
- 01
Define the notion before using it in a calculation.
- 02
Flag alternative conventions and false synonyms.
- 03
Link each term to the decisions, methods and evidence concerned.
Decision reference
Make the next choice more explicit.
DECISION SUPPORTED
How to use strategic notions without ambiguity?
DELIVERABLE TO KEEP
A stable vocabulary for comparing analyses produced at different moments.
NEXT ELEMENT TO EXAMINE
Strategic choiceExplore →Decision, option, choice and renunciation
Editorial convention: a decision names the question, the owner and the deadline. An option is a plausible answer, including the status quo. The choice selects an option and commits resources. The renunciation makes visible the other paths discarded and the benefits the organisation agrees not to obtain.
- Decision: question to settle
- Option: plausible answer
- Choice: option committed
- Renunciation: path explicitly discarded
Assumption, evidence, estimate and score
An assumption is an uncertain and refutable claim. Evidence is a dated element whose method and scope can be checked. An estimate combines data and assumptions to produce a value or a range. A score aggregates criteria according to a convention: it organises a decision but does not turn judgements into facts.
- Assumption: claim to test
- Evidence: traceable element
- Estimate: calculated and uncertain result
- Score: comparison convention
Signal, trend, scenario and tipping threshold
A signal is a dated observation likely to affect an assumption. A trend describes an evolution established over a scope and a period. A scenario combines coherent assumptions without announcing the future. A tipping threshold is the condition defined in advance that leads to investigating, reviewing or reopening a decision.
- Signal: observation to qualify
- Trend: documented evolution
- Scenario: possible coherent future
- Threshold: reopening rule
Resources
Reuse the method and verify its foundations.
- UK Government, The Futures Toolkit (opens in a new tab)Official source for the conventions on signals, scanning and possible futures.
- UK Government, The AQuA Book, 2025 (opens in a new tab)Official source for the notions of model, assumption, uncertainty, validation and traceable decision.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Produce a testable decision mandate
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Produce a testable decision mandate
RETURN TO THE DECISION SYSTEM
See the canonical definition of marketing strategy→