05 · Criteria

Strategic segmentation criteria: divide a market in order to decide

WHAT TO CHECK

A justified set of criteria and a reproducible rule for assigning observations to segments.

  1. 01Choose variables tied to value creation or to the way an organisation can win.
  2. 02Test measurability, stability, accessibility and actionability.
  3. 03Assess the incremental decision value contributed by each criterion.

Choose variables that can change an option

A useful criterion separates customers, uses or buying contexts because it changes the proposition, the route to market, the economics, the risk or the capability needed to win. Variables selected only because they are easy to collect should remain descriptive unless their decision effect is established.

  • Need or job
  • Use context
  • Economic condition
  • Required capability

Test the four operating properties

A criterion must be measurable with a stated rule, sufficiently stable for the decision horizon, reachable through a plausible access route and actionable through a distinct response. A weak property is a constraint to document, not a reason to silently replace the criterion with a proxy.

  • Measurement rule
  • Stability horizon
  • Access route
  • Distinct response

Keep the assignment rule and uncertainty visible

A segment label is reliable only if two analysts can apply the same rule to the same information and identify the cases that remain ambiguous. Record missing data, boundary cases and the evidence that would move an observation from one group to another before using the segments in a score or allocation.

  • Assignment rule
  • Missing data
  • Boundary case
  • Revision trigger

VALIDATION DOSSIER

State the decision contract

Use the question “Which variables identify groups that require different strategies?” as a contract: name the owner, deadline, scope and alternatives before collecting more material. Useful criteria explain a difference in value, use, economics, access, technology or required capability. They must also be measurable enough to assign observations consistently, stable enough for the decision horizon and actionable enough to change a choice. Record what is deliberately outside scope, who can challenge the framing and what consequence follows from postponement. This prevents an attractive framework, actor list or market story from silently replacing the decision that the analysis is meant to support.

  • Owner and deadline
  • Comparable alternatives
  • Explicit boundary
  • Cost of delay

VALIDATION DOSSIER

Build an inspectable evidence register

For every material statement, retain the original source, publication date, observation period, method, unit and relevant population. Distinguish observed facts, calculated estimates, interview judgements and assumptions. Connect the register to the promised output: A justified set of criteria and a reproducible rule for assigning observations to segments. Missing or contradictory evidence remains visible with a responsible owner and a collection action; it is never converted into certainty merely to complete the page.

  • Primary source
  • Method and unit
  • Confidence
  • Evidence gap

VALIDATION DOSSIER

Apply one operating convention

Define the rules before applying the analysis: inclusion criteria, identifiers, comparison set, calculation or coding convention, treatment of missing values and version date. Reproduce the same convention across every option or actor. Use the page checks as acceptance tests, beginning with “Choose variables tied to value creation or to the way an organisation can win.” A conclusion is usable only when another practitioner can reconstruct how the inputs became the displayed result and identify where judgement entered.

  • Stable definitions
  • Common comparison
  • Versioned inputs
  • Reproducible transformation

VALIDATION DOSSIER

Test uncertainty and rival interpretations

Challenge the preferred interpretation with at least one plausible alternative, contradictory observation and sensitivity test. Separate association from prediction and never infer intent, power or causality from a position, score or visual proximity alone. The standing limit remains: Adding variables rarely improves a decision when it makes segments impossible to measure, reach or serve consistently. State which uncertainty is most likely to reverse the conclusion and what additional observation would discriminate between the competing explanations.

  • Alternative explanation
  • Counterevidence
  • Sensitivity
  • Decision-changing uncertainty

VALIDATION DOSSIER

Record the action and reopening rule

Turn the analysis into a dated decision record rather than a static page. Preserve the selected option, rejected alternatives, objections, accepted risks and first reversible action. Name the signal, numerical or qualitative threshold, review owner and review date that will confirm, adapt, pause or reopen the decision. Link every later update to its author and reason so that the history remains understandable when evidence or market conditions change.

  • Decision trace
  • First reversible step
  • Review threshold
  • Named owner

LIMIT

Adding variables rarely improves a decision when it makes segments impossible to measure, reach or serve consistently.