RESULT OBTAINED
Decision concept
Weak signals: linking an early observation to a strategic assumption
What must be established
A useful analysis keeps its controls visible.
- 01
Describe the observation without confusing it with its interpretation.
- 02
Look for alternative explanations and converging signals.
- 03
Define the threshold that would trigger an inquiry, an option or a review.
Decision reference
Make the next choice more explicit.
DECISION SUPPORTED
Which still marginal observation could herald an important change for the decision?
DELIVERABLE TO KEEP
A signal sheet with trajectory, credibility, impact and decision affected.
NEXT ELEMENT TO EXAMINE
Strategic assumptionExplore →Record the observation before the story it suggests
A sheet separates the observed fact, its direct source, its date, its entity, its area and its horizon from the interpretation formulated by the analyst. The examples on the radar are illustrative and simulated. They correspond neither to identified organisations nor to verified market observations.
- Raw observation
- Source and date
- Interpretation
- Alternative explanations
Prioritise without claiming to predict
The illustrative score displayed equals novelty × credibility × impact, each dimension being scored from 1 to 5, hence a maximum of 125. This multiplication imposes a sorting convention, not a probability. The criteria, their evidence and the uncertainty are kept separately so that a single score does not hide the disagreement.
- Explicit formula
- Scale from 1 to 5
- Simulated values
- No probability inferred
Link the signal to a reversible action
Each signal names the strategic assumption affected and a threshold set in advance: second independent source, frequency, regulatory change, observable adoption or crossing of a volume. The threshold triggers an inquiry, a test or the reopening of an option. It does not automatically trigger an irreversible investment.
- Assumption affected
- Converging signal
- Action threshold
- Owner and review date
08 · ORIGINAL ASSET
Radar of signals tied to a decision
Dataset + radar
Priority rises with novelty, credibility and potential impact; the ranking does not predict the disruption.
Download the CSV signals ↓TalentRegulatory AI hiring
80/125RuleDraft sector standard
75/125TechnologyThree converging patents
60/125BehaviourEmerging use in SMEs
40/125AllianceUnexpected partnership
36/125Teaching case · simulated data · no real-world market conclusion.
- UK Government, The Futures Toolkit (opens in a new tab)Official guide for collecting, analysing and reporting trends and weak signals in a scanning process.
- UK Government, Weak signals and trend analysis, 2025 (opens in a new tab)Institutional case documenting the building of a scanning and signal analysis capability.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Produce a testable decision mandate
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Produce a testable decision mandate
RETURN TO THE DECISION SYSTEM
See the canonical definition of marketing strategy→