12 · Arbitrate

Make an arbitration traceable, challengeable and reviewable

DECISIONS SUPPORTED

Which option should be chosen, with which confidence, accepted risks and reopening conditions?

  1. 01Compare options
  2. 02Prepare a committee
  3. 03Document disagreements
  4. 04Set the next review

ORIGINAL ASSET

Arbitration dossier

Assembles criteria, scores, evidence, objections, accepted risks and review rules.

INPUTSOptionsCriteriaScoresEvidenceObjections
OUTPUTSRecommendationConfidenceAccepted risksReview conditions

Keep facts, assumptions and preferences distinct

A score helps compare options only when the source, method and uncertainty behind each criterion remain visible. It does not turn a preference into a fact.

  • Observed fact
  • Testable assumption
  • Declared preference
  • Missing evidence

Preserve disagreement instead of concealing it

A committee needs to record the credible objection, the evidence that would change the view and the owner of that evidence. Consensus is not proof.

  • Objection
  • Counter-evidence
  • Owner
  • Due date

Define the reopening rule with the choice

A recommendation remains conditional when a threshold, risk or dependency can invalidate it. The review date and trigger are part of the decision.

  • Threshold
  • Accepted risk
  • Trigger
  • Review date

REVIEWABLE ARBITRATION

Separate evidence, preference and uncertainty

A score is not evidence. Each criterion must retain its definition, unit, source, date and confidence, while weights express an explicit preference of the decision-makers. Missing information remains visible instead of being replaced by a convenient average. The recommendation therefore states which facts support it, which assumptions remain fragile and which preference makes one trade-off acceptable rather than another.

  • Comparable options
  • Qualified evidence
  • Explicit preferences
  • Visible unknowns

Keep the recommendation conditional, traceable and open to challenge.

Record disagreement and the rule for reopening

A committee-ready dossier preserves objections, rejected alternatives and accepted risks. It also names the signal, threshold, owner and review date that would reopen the choice. Sensitivity analysis must show whether a plausible change in a weight, estimate or constraint reverses the ranking. A robust decision is not permanent: it is a documented commitment with a monitoring rule and an exit or adaptation path.

  • Objections retained
  • Sensitivity tested
  • Reopening threshold
  • Named owner

SOURCES AND FOUNDATIONS

Review conditions remain part of the decision.

GO FURTHER

Review conditions remain part of the decision.

01

Multi-criteria analysis

02

Sensitivity

03

Reversibility

04

Pre-mortem

05

Red team

06

Decision log

DECISION QUESTION