DECISION SUPPORTED
Which option to choose, with which level of confidence, which accepted risks and which reopening conditions?
12 · Decide
Making a decision traceable, contestable and revisable
DECISION QUESTION
Which option to choose, with which level of confidence, which accepted risks and which reopening conditions?The decision separates facts, assumptions, preferences and uncertainties, then keeps the objections and tipping thresholds.
Decisions supported
What the page really helps to choose.
- 01Compare the options
- 02Test robustness before the committee
- 03Measure the regret per scenario
- 04Retain the most robust option
ORIGINAL ASSET
Regret matrix
Compares three options across three scenarios, calculates the regret of each and retains the one with the lowest maximum regret.
INPUTSDirect entryPartnershipLimited pilotThree scenariosValue per scenario
→OUTPUTSRegret per scenarioMaximum regretRobust optionCSV case
Decision reference
Move from the subject to the choice that depends on it.
ASSET TO USE
Regret matrix: Compares three options across three scenarios, calculates the regret of each and retains the one with the lowest maximum regret.
NEXT ELEMENT TO EXAMINE
Decision matrixExplore →41 · ORIGINAL ASSET
Choosing the option with the lowest maximum regret
Regret comparison
Minimax regret avoids assuming reliable probabilities: it measures, in each scenario, the loss against the best option after the fact.
Download the case ↓| Option | Unfavourable | Central | Favourable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct entry | 12 | 38 | 72 |
| Partnership | 25 | 45 | 58 |
| Limited pilot | 34 | 40 | 47 |
| Option | Unfavourable | Central | Favourable | Max. regret |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct entry | 22 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| Partnership | 9 | 0 | 14 | 14 |
| Limited pilot | 0 | 5 | 25 | 25 |
Robust option: partnership, with a maximum regret of 14 against 22 for direct entry and 25 for the pilot.
Teaching case · simulated data · no real-world market conclusion.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Produce a testable decision mandate
Go deeper
The next questions to address.
Move from the notion to its application, then to the decision that depends on it.
01Explicit scope
Unit, horizon and boundaries visible.
02Qualified evidence
Source, date, method and confidence.
03Sensitivity tested
Weights and assumptions that tip the result.
04Review planned
Signal, threshold and owner.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION