RESULT OBTAINED
Canonical method
Morphological analysis: building coherent scenarios
What must be established
A useful analysis keeps its controls visible.
- 01
Select a small number of variables that genuinely structure the system and are sufficiently independent.
- 02
Describe for each of them plausible, distinct and sourced states.
- 03
Discard incoherent combinations while keeping the reason for each exclusion.
Decision reference
Make the next choice more explicit.
DECISION SUPPORTED
How to explore several futures without adding up incompatible assumptions?
DELIVERABLE TO KEEP
A traceable morphological space and a small set of contrasting scenarios to test.
NEXT ELEMENT TO EXAMINE
Weak signalsExplore →Choose the dimensions
A variable must be able to take several states relevant to the decision. Redundant dimensions artificially inflate the space of possibilities.
- Driving variable
- Horizon
- Distinct states
- Source
Test compatibility
Each combination is examined before writing. An incompatibility must be explained rather than silently deleted.
- Pair of states
- Compatibility
- Justification
- Review
Retain useful scenarios
The scenarios retained must be plausible, contrasting and able to change the evaluation of the options. They do not seek to cover every combination.
- Coherence
- Contrast
- Decision relevance
DECISION ASSET
Morphological space of possible futures
The register combines the states of structuring variables after a compatibility check.
Variable
- Input
- Structuring uncertainty
- Control
- Is it independent?
- Output
- Dimension
States
- Input
- Distinct futures
- Control
- Are they plausible and sourced?
- Output
- Assumptions
Compatibility
- Input
- Pairs of states
- Control
- Can they coexist?
- Output
- Filter
Scenario
- Input
- Combination retained
- Control
- Does it change a decision?
- Output
- Future to test
- Morphological analysis, Futuribles (opens in a new tab)Definition of the method and of its use for building scenarios.
- Territorial foresight and scenario building, France Stratégie (opens in a new tab)Public methodological guide linking variables, assumptions and scenarios.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Produce a testable decision mandate
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Produce a testable decision mandate
RETURN TO THE DECISION SYSTEM
See the canonical definition of marketing strategy→