10 · Morphological analysis
WHAT TO CHECK
Define the decision context and horizon, then select a limited number of dimensions that genuinely shape the outcome. Dimensions should be independent enough to combine, yet material enough to alter a choice.
For every dimension, write a small set of states that are observable or auditable. Avoid labels such as ‘high’ and ‘low’ unless the measure, reference point and range are given.
Examine pairwise or cross-consistency constraints and record why a combination is retained or removed. The surviving configurations are inputs to scenarios, stress tests or option design—not predictions.
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Use the question “Which combinations of critical uncertainties are internally coherent enough to challenge today’s strategic options?” as a contract: name the owner, deadline, scope and alternatives before collecting more material. Morphological analysis decomposes a complex issue into dimensions and alternative states. It does not rank futures; it creates a transparent field from which coherent configurations can be selected and discussed. Record what is deliberately outside scope, who can challenge the framing and what consequence follows from postponement. This prevents an attractive framework, actor list or market story from silently replacing the decision that the analysis is meant to support.
VALIDATION DOSSIER
For every material statement, retain the original source, publication date, observation period, method, unit and relevant population. Distinguish observed facts, calculated estimates, interview judgements and assumptions. Connect the register to the promised output: A morphological field, an explicit consistency screen and a short list of configurations worth testing. Missing or contradictory evidence remains visible with a responsible owner and a collection action; it is never converted into certainty merely to complete the page.
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Define the rules before applying the analysis: inclusion criteria, identifiers, comparison set, calculation or coding convention, treatment of missing values and version date. Reproduce the same convention across every option or actor. Use the page checks as acceptance tests, beginning with “State the focal question, boundary and time horizon before defining dimensions.” A conclusion is usable only when another practitioner can reconstruct how the inputs became the displayed result and identify where judgement entered.
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Challenge the preferred interpretation with at least one plausible alternative, contradictory observation and sensitivity test. Separate association from prediction and never infer intent, power or causality from a position, score or visual proximity alone. The standing limit remains: The method explores possibilities; it neither assigns probabilities nor establishes causality between dimensions. State which uncertainty is most likely to reverse the conclusion and what additional observation would discriminate between the competing explanations.
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Turn the analysis into a dated decision record rather than a static page. Preserve the selected option, rejected alternatives, objections, accepted risks and first reversible action. Name the signal, numerical or qualitative threshold, review owner and review date that will confirm, adapt, pause or reopen the decision. Link every later update to its author and reason so that the history remains understandable when evidence or market conditions change.
LIMIT
