RESULT OBTAINED
Canonical method
Delphi method: structuring expert judgement without hiding the disagreement
What must be established
A useful analysis keeps its controls visible.
- 01
Define the question, the expertise criteria, the composition of the panel and the conflicts of interest.
- 02
Pre-specify the rounds, the feedback provided, the consensus or stability rules and the handling of dropouts.
- 03
Keep the distribution of answers, the minority arguments and the unresolved points in the report.
Decision reference
Make the next choice more explicit.
DECISION SUPPORTED
How to organise several rounds of anonymised expertise when data is incomplete and opinions are scattered?
DELIVERABLE TO KEEP
A traceable Delphi dossier with protocol, panel, questionnaires, feedback, distributions, stability, disagreements and limits.
NEXT ELEMENT TO EXAMINE
Morphological analysisExplore →Write the protocol before the first round
The decision supported, the inclusion criteria, the number of rounds or the stopping rule and the definition of consensus are set before collection. This pre-specification avoids adapting the method to the desired result.
- Question
- Panel
- Rounds
- Stopping rule
Organise controlled feedback
After each round, the participants receive an anonymised synthesis of the answers and justifications. The feedback must allow revision without artificially erasing minority positions.
- Anonymity
- Distribution
- Arguments
- Revision
Report stability and dissent
The report shows the answers per round, the dropouts, the stability and the unresolved items. An absence of consensus can be useful strategic information rather than a failure to correct.
- Evolution
- Attrition
- Stability
- Persistent disagreement
DECISION ASSET
Delphi consultation protocol
The protocol makes visible the selection of the experts, the rules of each round, the feedback provided and the handling of disagreement.
Question
- Input
- Decision and horizon
- Control
- Is the scope bounded?
- Output
- Protocol
Panel
- Input
- Expertise and diversity
- Control
- Which criteria and conflicts?
- Output
- Justified composition
Rounds
- Input
- Questionnaire and feedback
- Control
- What do the participants see?
- Output
- Traceable iteration
Stop
- Input
- Stability or planned rounds
- Control
- What remains in disagreement?
- Output
- Bounded report
- RAND, Methodological Guidance for Delphi Panels, 2023 (opens in a new tab)Official methodological guide on the design, rounds, stability and critical evaluation of Delphi panels.
- Jünger et al., CREDES, 2017 (opens in a new tab)Recommendations of conduct and transparency for documenting a Delphi study and its limits.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Produce a testable decision mandate
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Produce a testable decision mandate
RETURN TO THE DECISION SYSTEM
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