Frame my decision · 5 min ↗

10 · Delphi method

Delphi method: elicit expert judgement with an audit trail

WHAT TO CHECK

A documented panel result showing the question, panel composition, rounds, convergence and unresolved dissent.

  1. 01Select experts for relevant, diverse knowledge—not reputation alone.
  2. 02Pre-register the question wording, scale, stopping rule and treatment of disagreement.
  3. 03Report distributions and minority arguments, not only a central score.

Design questions that experts can answer

Ask about a defined object, population, horizon and condition. Test wording with a small pilot so that respondents do not answer different questions under the same label.

  • Operational question
  • Scale and anchors
  • Forecast or judgement horizon

Compose and protect the panel

Document selection criteria, expertise gaps and conflicts of interest. Use anonymity between panellists where appropriate, and make facilitator intervention and feedback rules visible.

  • Selection rationale
  • Conflicts and gaps
  • Anonymity and facilitation

Read convergence with restraint

Compare rounds using the agreed statistics and retain reasons for outlying views. A recommendation should state how panel judgement is combined with data, scenarios and decision authority.

  • Round-by-round distribution
  • Dissent and rationale
  • Decision use and limits

LIMIT

Consensus is not validation. Expert judgement cannot replace observed market evidence, and a narrow panel can reproduce the same bias repeatedly.

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SOURCES

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