DECISION SUPPORTED
Which option remains acceptable when the critical variables take contrasting values?
11 · Stress-test
Building scenarios that really change the decision
DECISION QUESTION
Which option remains acceptable when the critical variables take contrasting values?Scenarios make explicit variables, assumptions, triggers, reversible options and relative performance.
Decisions supported
What the page really helps to choose.
- 01Rule out incoherent scenarios
- 02Identify the driving variables
- 03Spot a critical loop
- 04Rate the cross impacts
ORIGINAL ASSET
Cross-impact matrix
Rates the effect of each variable on the others, from −3 to +3, to spot strong loops and rule out incoherent scenarios.
INPUTSRegulationAdoptionCostsCompetitionInfluence ratings
→OUTPUTSRated influencesCritical loopIncoherent scenariosCSV matrix
Decision reference
Move from the subject to the choice that depends on it.
ASSET TO USE
Cross-impact matrix: Rates the effect of each variable on the others, from −3 to +3, to spot strong loops and rule out incoherent scenarios.
NEXT ELEMENT TO EXAMINE
Making a decision traceable, contestable and revisableExplore →Build coherent futures rather than high and low variants
A scenario combines several compatible uncertainties in a narrative bounded by a horizon and a scope. It does not automatically receive a probability. Assumptions that cannot coexist are flagged before the options are tested.
- Horizon
- Driving variables
- Internal coherence
- Incompatibilities
Rate the impacts with a visible protocol
The tool’s scale from minus three to plus three is an illustrative convention. Each score must be linked to a decision unit, an argument, a source or an assumption and a confidence level. A value without justification remains unknown and must not be aggregated.
- Unit
- Justification
- Confidence
- Missing value
Compare robustness, regret and reversibility
The option retained is not necessarily the one with the best average. The decision-maker examines the scenarios in which it becomes unacceptable, the associated regret, its exit cost and the signals allowing a switch to another option.
- Acceptance threshold
- Regret
- Exit cost
- Tipping signal
40 · ORIGINAL ASSET
Detecting incoherent scenarios
Cross-impact matrix
Each cell measures the effect of the row variable on the column variable, from −3 to +3. Strong loops impose a joint scenario.
Download the matrix ↓RegulationAdoptionCostsCompetitionRegulation0+3-2+2Adoption+20-1+3Costs+1-20+2Competition+2-3+10
Critical loop: adoption ↔ competition. Strong adoption attracts entrants, who in turn accelerate the education of the market.
Teaching case · simulated data · no real-world market conclusion.
Sources and foundations
Check the definitions and the limits of the method.
- OECD, Strategic Foresight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policy, 2025 (opens in a new tab)Official method for building scenarios and testing strategies against several plausible futures.
- Shell, Using Scenarios (opens in a new tab)Practice guide explaining the use of scenarios to identify uncertainties and test a strategy, without presenting them as forecasts.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Produce a testable decision mandate
Go deeper
The next questions to address.
Move from the notion to its application, then to the decision that depends on it.
01
Scenario or forecast
Key points, how to apply them and what to watch for
02
Critical variables
Key points, how to apply them and what to watch for
03
Stress test
Key points, how to apply them and what to watch for
04
Reversible options
Key points, how to apply them and what to watch for
05
Triggers
Key points, how to apply them and what to watch for
06
Robustness
Key points, how to apply them and what to watch for
01Explicit scope
Unit, horizon and boundaries visible.
02Qualified evidence
Source, date, method and confidence.
03Sensitivity tested
Weights and assumptions that tip the result.
04Review planned
Signal, threshold and owner.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION