DECISION SUPPORTED
Which option remains acceptable when critical variables take contrasting values?
11 · Stress-test
Build scenarios that genuinely change the decision
DECISIONS SUPPORTED
Which option remains acceptable when critical variables take contrasting values?
- 01Choose a robust option
- 02Define a conditional decision
- 03Test an extreme stress
- 04Identify leading signals
ORIGINAL ASSET
Scenario builder
Compares potential, risk and robustness for each option under several states of the world.
INPUTSVariablesValuesAssumptionsOptionsHorizon
→OUTPUTSScenariosRobustnessSensitivitiesSignals to monitor
DECISION LANDMARK
Move from the subject to the choice it supports.
ASSET TO USE
Scenario builder: Compares potential, risk and robustness for each option under several states of the world.
NEXT ELEMENT TO EXAMINE
Scenario or forecastExplore →Build coherent futures, not high and low variants
A scenario combines compatible uncertainties in a narrative bounded by a horizon and scope. It does not automatically receive a probability, and incompatible assumptions are flagged before options are tested.
- Horizon
- Driving variables
- Internal consistency
- Incompatibilities
Score impacts with a visible protocol
The tool’s scale is a teaching convention. Each score needs a decision unit, rationale, source or assumption and confidence level; an unjustified value remains unknown.
- Unit
- Rationale
- Confidence
- Missing value
Compare robustness, regret and reversibility
The best average is not necessarily the right choice. Review unacceptable scenarios, the regret incurred, exit cost and signals that justify switching options.
- Acceptance threshold
- Regret
- Exit cost
- Switch signal
VALIDATION DOSSIER
State the decision contract
Use the question “Which option remains acceptable when critical variables take contrasting values?” as a contract: name the owner, deadline, scope and alternatives before collecting more material. Scenarios make variables, assumptions, triggers, reversible options and relative performance explicit. Record what is deliberately outside scope, who can challenge the framing and what consequence follows from postponement. This prevents an attractive framework, actor list or market story from silently replacing the decision that the analysis is meant to support.
- Owner and deadline
- Comparable alternatives
- Explicit boundary
- Cost of delay
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Build an inspectable evidence register
For every material statement, retain the original source, publication date, observation period, method, unit and relevant population. Distinguish observed facts, calculated estimates, interview judgements and assumptions. Connect the register to the promised output: Scenarios · Robustness · Sensitivities · Signals to monitor Missing or contradictory evidence remains visible with a responsible owner and a collection action; it is never converted into certainty merely to complete the page.
- Primary source
- Method and unit
- Confidence
- Evidence gap
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Apply one operating convention
Define the rules before applying the analysis: inclusion criteria, identifiers, comparison set, calculation or coding convention, treatment of missing values and version date. Reproduce the same convention across every option or actor. Use the page checks as acceptance tests, beginning with “Choose a robust option” A conclusion is usable only when another practitioner can reconstruct how the inputs became the displayed result and identify where judgement entered.
- Stable definitions
- Common comparison
- Versioned inputs
- Reproducible transformation
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Test uncertainty and rival interpretations
Challenge the preferred interpretation with at least one plausible alternative, contradictory observation and sensitivity test. Separate association from prediction and never infer intent, power or causality from a position, score or visual proximity alone. The standing limit remains: Review conditions remain part of the decision. State which uncertainty is most likely to reverse the conclusion and what additional observation would discriminate between the competing explanations.
- Alternative explanation
- Counterevidence
- Sensitivity
- Decision-changing uncertainty
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Record the action and reopening rule
Turn the analysis into a dated decision record rather than a static page. Preserve the selected option, rejected alternatives, objections, accepted risks and first reversible action. Name the signal, numerical or qualitative threshold, review owner and review date that will confirm, adapt, pause or reopen the decision. Link every later update to its author and reason so that the history remains understandable when evidence or market conditions change.
- Decision trace
- First reversible step
- Review threshold
- Named owner
SOURCES AND FOUNDATIONS
Review conditions remain part of the decision.
- OECD, Strategic Foresight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policy, 2025 (opens in a new tab)Official method for building scenarios and testing strategies across plausible futures.
- Shell, Using Scenarios (opens in a new tab)Practical guide to using scenarios without treating them as forecasts.
GO FURTHER
Review conditions remain part of the decision.
01
Scenario or forecast
02
Critical variables
03
Stress test
04
Reversible options
05
Triggers
06