Set the boundary before the number
A dossier starts with needs, alternatives, buyers, geography, unit and horizon. These choices determine whether later figures, actors and trends can be compared.
- Need and alternatives
- Geography
- Unit and period
05 · Market dossiers
Living market dossiers
WHAT TO CHECK
A dated, sourced dossier connecting observed facts with the decisions they inform.
- 01Stabilise the boundary before measuring.
- 02Qualify every source and flag estimates.
- 03Match the depth of analysis to evidence actually available.
Preserve evidence and disagreement
Each material claim keeps its source, date, method, scope and uncertainty. Conflicting estimates are retained rather than averaged into a misleading single number.
- Source quality
- Contradictions
- Confidence
Connect monitoring to a decision
A dossier becomes living when signals and update dates have owners and are linked to a choice. It states which threshold would reopen market entry, investment or positioning.
- Update owner
- Signal
- Decision trigger
VALIDATION DOSSIER
State the decision contract
Use the question “What must a market record contain to support a durable decision?” as a contract: name the owner, deadline, scope and alternatives before collecting more material. A living dossier connects the market definition, size, actors, segments, regulation, signals, scenarios, risks and update history. Record what is deliberately outside scope, who can challenge the framing and what consequence follows from postponement. This prevents an attractive framework, actor list or market story from silently replacing the decision that the analysis is meant to support.
- Owner and deadline
- Comparable alternatives
- Explicit boundary
- Cost of delay
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Build an inspectable evidence register
For every material statement, retain the original source, publication date, observation period, method, unit and relevant population. Distinguish observed facts, calculated estimates, interview judgements and assumptions. Connect the register to the promised output: A dated, sourced dossier connecting observed facts with the decisions they inform. Missing or contradictory evidence remains visible with a responsible owner and a collection action; it is never converted into certainty merely to complete the page.
- Primary source
- Method and unit
- Confidence
- Evidence gap
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Apply one operating convention
Define the rules before applying the analysis: inclusion criteria, identifiers, comparison set, calculation or coding convention, treatment of missing values and version date. Reproduce the same convention across every option or actor. Use the page checks as acceptance tests, beginning with “Stabilise the boundary before measuring.” A conclusion is usable only when another practitioner can reconstruct how the inputs became the displayed result and identify where judgement entered.
- Stable definitions
- Common comparison
- Versioned inputs
- Reproducible transformation
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Test uncertainty and rival interpretations
Challenge the preferred interpretation with at least one plausible alternative, contradictory observation and sensitivity test. Separate association from prediction and never infer intent, power or causality from a position, score or visual proximity alone. The standing limit remains: A list of headings is not analysis: depth must follow available evidence. State which uncertainty is most likely to reverse the conclusion and what additional observation would discriminate between the competing explanations.
- Alternative explanation
- Counterevidence
- Sensitivity
- Decision-changing uncertainty
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Record the action and reopening rule
Turn the analysis into a dated decision record rather than a static page. Preserve the selected option, rejected alternatives, objections, accepted risks and first reversible action. Name the signal, numerical or qualitative threshold, review owner and review date that will confirm, adapt, pause or reopen the decision. Link every later update to its author and reason so that the history remains understandable when evidence or market conditions change.
- Decision trace
- First reversible step
- Review threshold
- Named owner
LIMIT
A list of headings is not analysis: depth must follow available evidence.
- UK Government, The AQuA Book (opens in a new tab)Official guidance for transparent evidence, assumptions, uncertainty and analytical assurance.