Define the entry arena
Specify customer, geography, offer, channel and horizon so market estimates and access conditions are comparable.
- Customer
- Geography
- Access conditions
08 · Enter a new market
Enter a new market: compare access paths before committing
WHAT TO CHECK
A staged entry decision with route, owner, evidence gaps and stop/scale rules.
- 01Define the addressable customer and required right to operate.
- 02Model incremental cost, time and downside for each route.
- 03Set a test threshold before irreversible investment.
Compare entry routes
Assess direct build, distributor, acquisition or pilot by control, speed, cost, learning and reversibility.
- Route
- Economics
- Reversibility
Stage the commitment
Use a proof-gathering pilot with a decision date and thresholds rather than treating the first launch as validation.
- Pilot evidence
- Stop threshold
- Scale decision
VALIDATION DOSSIER
State the decision contract
Use the question “Should we enter this market, by which route, and what evidence would stop us?” as a contract: name the owner, deadline, scope and alternatives before collecting more material. Entry is a sequence of commitments, not a binary launch. Compare direct, partner-led and staged access against the same market definition, customer proof, cost and regulatory conditions. Record what is deliberately outside scope, who can challenge the framing and what consequence follows from postponement. This prevents an attractive framework, actor list or market story from silently replacing the decision that the analysis is meant to support.
- Owner and deadline
- Comparable alternatives
- Explicit boundary
- Cost of delay
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Build an inspectable evidence register
For every material statement, retain the original source, publication date, observation period, method, unit and relevant population. Distinguish observed facts, calculated estimates, interview judgements and assumptions. Connect the register to the promised output: A staged entry decision with route, owner, evidence gaps and stop/scale rules. Missing or contradictory evidence remains visible with a responsible owner and a collection action; it is never converted into certainty merely to complete the page.
- Primary source
- Method and unit
- Confidence
- Evidence gap
LIMIT
Early demand signals do not validate repeatable economics, channel access or regulatory fit.
- UK Government, The Green Book (opens in a new tab)Official guidance on options, uncertainty and appraisal before commitment.