RESULT OBTAINED
Canonical method
Strategic real options: deciding in stages under uncertainty
What must be established
A useful analysis keeps its controls visible.
- 01
Name the decision, the irreversible commitment and the uncertainty that really matters.
- 02
Set the cost, the evidence to obtain, the expiry date and the owner of the first stage.
- 03
Define the thresholds for accelerating, adapting or stopping before observing the result.
Decision reference
Make the next choice more explicit.
DECISION SUPPORTED
Which limited commitment preserves a useful possibility while the evidence remains incomplete?
DELIVERABLE TO KEEP
An option sheet stating the initial commitment, the intended learning, the decision thresholds, the maximum risk and the next review.
NEXT ELEMENT TO EXAMINE
Enter a new marketExplore →Distinguishing a staged option from indecision
Waiting becomes an option only if the organisation protects a precise right to act while limiting its exposure. The market, capability or partnership concerned, the cost of keeping the option open and its expiry date must be named.
- Right preserved
- Limited exposure
- Expiry date
- Owner
Designing the first commitment to learn
A pilot, a limited partnership, a reservation or a prototype is useful only if it can resolve an uncertainty likely to change the decision. The expected evidence, its evaluation method and the commitment that remains reversible are recorded.
- Question to resolve
- Expected evidence
- Reversible commitment
- Evaluation method
Setting the rules to accelerate, adapt or stop
Define in advance which evidence triggers an extension, a modified option or an exit. A threshold is not a forecast: it is a review rule that avoids rereading the result only to defend the initial commitment.
- Acceleration threshold
- Adaptation trigger
- Stop rule
- Review date
Resources
Reuse the method and verify its foundations.
- Dauphine, Les options réelles (opens in a new tab)Academic synthesis on the benefits, conditions and valuation limits of real options.
- École de Paris du management, Les options réelles (opens in a new tab)Critical discussion of the practical uses and limits of real options in the strategic allocation of resources.
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Produce a testable decision mandate
MOVE FROM ANALYSIS TO YOUR DECISION
Produce a testable decision mandate
RETURN TO THE DECISION SYSTEM
See the canonical definition of marketing strategy→