04 · Dependencies

Dependencies: identify points of control and fragility

WHAT TO CHECK

A map of critical dependencies with reduction, sharing or monitoring options.

  1. 01Name the dependent object, critical resource and holder.
  2. 02Assess concentration, substitutability, replacement time and cost.
  3. 03Simulate the effect of disruption or changed terms.

Describe the dependency as a mechanism

Record what is obtained, from whom, under which rule or interface and for which decision. A supplier name alone is insufficient: the critical resource, access condition and affected activity must be explicit.

  • Dependent object
  • Resource or access
  • Holder
  • Affected decision

Test substitutability before scoring criticality

Concentration is only one signal. Assess qualified alternatives, switching delay, contractual constraints, migration cost and the evidence supporting each assumption. Unknown information remains unknown rather than becoming an average score.

  • Alternative available
  • Replacement delay
  • Transition cost
  • Evidence and uncertainty

Link exposure to a reversible response

A disruption scenario can lead to qualification of an alternative, inventory, contractual change, monitoring or acceptance of exposure. The response includes a threshold and owner, rather than claiming that a score predicts failure.

  • Disruption scenario
  • Response option
  • Action threshold
  • Review owner

VALIDATION DOSSIER

State the decision contract

Use the question “Which actors, technologies, resources or rules does access to the market depend on?” as a contract: name the owner, deadline, scope and alternatives before collecting more material. A dependency becomes strategic when it concentrates blocking power, disruption risk or high substitution cost. Record what is deliberately outside scope, who can challenge the framing and what consequence follows from postponement. This prevents an attractive framework, actor list or market story from silently replacing the decision that the analysis is meant to support.

  • Owner and deadline
  • Comparable alternatives
  • Explicit boundary
  • Cost of delay

VALIDATION DOSSIER

Build an inspectable evidence register

For every material statement, retain the original source, publication date, observation period, method, unit and relevant population. Distinguish observed facts, calculated estimates, interview judgements and assumptions. Connect the register to the promised output: A map of critical dependencies with reduction, sharing or monitoring options. Missing or contradictory evidence remains visible with a responsible owner and a collection action; it is never converted into certainty merely to complete the page.

  • Primary source
  • Method and unit
  • Confidence
  • Evidence gap

VALIDATION DOSSIER

Apply one operating convention

Define the rules before applying the analysis: inclusion criteria, identifiers, comparison set, calculation or coding convention, treatment of missing values and version date. Reproduce the same convention across every option or actor. Use the page checks as acceptance tests, beginning with “Name the dependent object, critical resource and holder.” A conclusion is usable only when another practitioner can reconstruct how the inputs became the displayed result and identify where judgement entered.

  • Stable definitions
  • Common comparison
  • Versioned inputs
  • Reproducible transformation

VALIDATION DOSSIER

Test uncertainty and rival interpretations

Challenge the preferred interpretation with at least one plausible alternative, contradictory observation and sensitivity test. Separate association from prediction and never infer intent, power or causality from a position, score or visual proximity alone. The standing limit remains: Not every relationship is a dependency; the test is the impossibility or cost of replacement. State which uncertainty is most likely to reverse the conclusion and what additional observation would discriminate between the competing explanations.

  • Alternative explanation
  • Counterevidence
  • Sensitivity
  • Decision-changing uncertainty

VALIDATION DOSSIER

Record the action and reopening rule

Turn the analysis into a dated decision record rather than a static page. Preserve the selected option, rejected alternatives, objections, accepted risks and first reversible action. Name the signal, numerical or qualitative threshold, review owner and review date that will confirm, adapt, pause or reopen the decision. Link every later update to its author and reason so that the history remains understandable when evidence or market conditions change.

  • Decision trace
  • First reversible step
  • Review threshold
  • Named owner

LIMIT

Not every relationship is a dependency; the test is the impossibility or cost of replacement.