Set the baseline
Specify what each activity would achieve separately so incremental value cannot be double-counted.
- Stand-alone case
- Counterfactual
- Timeframe
09 · Portfolio synergies
Portfolio synergies: test complementarities before claiming value
WHAT TO CHECK
A synergy case with baseline, mechanism, owner, metrics and stop condition.
- 01Define the stand-alone baseline for every claimed benefit.
- 02Separate shared revenue, cost and capability mechanisms.
- 03Include coordination, integration and opportunity costs.
Describe the mechanism
Name whether the benefit comes from customers, assets, capabilities or costs and how it will be captured.
- Mechanism
- Owner
- Metric
Test net value
Include integration burden and alternative uses of resources; set thresholds that stop or revise the initiative.
- Coordination cost
- Net benefit
- Stop condition
VALIDATION DOSSIER
State the decision contract
Use the question “What incremental value comes from combining these activities, for whom, and at what cost?” as a contract: name the owner, deadline, scope and alternatives before collecting more material. Synergy is not a relationship between business names. It is an incremental outcome relative to credible stand-alone alternatives, with a mechanism, owner, timing and costs that can be inspected. Record what is deliberately outside scope, who can challenge the framing and what consequence follows from postponement. This prevents an attractive framework, actor list or market story from silently replacing the decision that the analysis is meant to support.
- Owner and deadline
- Comparable alternatives
- Explicit boundary
- Cost of delay
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Build an inspectable evidence register
For every material statement, retain the original source, publication date, observation period, method, unit and relevant population. Distinguish observed facts, calculated estimates, interview judgements and assumptions. Connect the register to the promised output: A synergy case with baseline, mechanism, owner, metrics and stop condition. Missing or contradictory evidence remains visible with a responsible owner and a collection action; it is never converted into certainty merely to complete the page.
- Primary source
- Method and unit
- Confidence
- Evidence gap
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Apply one operating convention
Define the rules before applying the analysis: inclusion criteria, identifiers, comparison set, calculation or coding convention, treatment of missing values and version date. Reproduce the same convention across every option or actor. Use the page checks as acceptance tests, beginning with “Define the stand-alone baseline for every claimed benefit.” A conclusion is usable only when another practitioner can reconstruct how the inputs became the displayed result and identify where judgement entered.
- Stable definitions
- Common comparison
- Versioned inputs
- Reproducible transformation
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Test uncertainty and rival interpretations
Challenge the preferred interpretation with at least one plausible alternative, contradictory observation and sensitivity test. Separate association from prediction and never infer intent, power or causality from a position, score or visual proximity alone. The standing limit remains: Correlation or co-location does not demonstrate synergy; expected benefits can be offset by complexity. State which uncertainty is most likely to reverse the conclusion and what additional observation would discriminate between the competing explanations.
- Alternative explanation
- Counterevidence
- Sensitivity
- Decision-changing uncertainty
VALIDATION DOSSIER
Record the action and reopening rule
Turn the analysis into a dated decision record rather than a static page. Preserve the selected option, rejected alternatives, objections, accepted risks and first reversible action. Name the signal, numerical or qualitative threshold, review owner and review date that will confirm, adapt, pause or reopen the decision. Link every later update to its author and reason so that the history remains understandable when evidence or market conditions change.
- Decision trace
- First reversible step
- Review threshold
- Named owner
LIMIT
Correlation or co-location does not demonstrate synergy; expected benefits can be offset by complexity.
- UK Government, The Green Book (opens in a new tab)Guidance for incremental options, double counting and sensitivity analysis.