02 · GE–McKinsey matrix

GE–McKinsey matrix: compare attractiveness and competitive strength transparently

WHAT TO CHECK

A multicriteria portfolio map with its evidence, uncertainty and review conditions.

  1. 01Separate external attractiveness from internal competitive evidence.
  2. 02Justify each criterion and avoid double counting.
  3. 03Test sensitivity and show constraints that a weighted average cannot offset.

Keep the two dimensions distinct

Attractiveness concerns the external setting: structure, demand, access or regulation. Competitive strength concerns the organisation's position and capabilities. Reusing the same evidence in both dimensions gives it hidden double weight.

  • External criteria
  • Internal criteria
  • Evidence owner
  • No double count

Expose weights and scales

A scale needs an observable anchor for every level. Weights are decision conventions, not measured facts, and should be challenged by the people who bear the consequences of the allocation.

  • Scale anchors
  • Weight rationale
  • Evidence date
  • Missing values

Stress-test the recommendation

Recalculate the position when sensitive weights or inputs change and state which constraints are non-compensable. The map should lead to a conditional action and a next review signal, not a mechanical invest-or-exit order.

  • Sensitivity
  • Non-compensable constraint
  • Conditional action
  • Review signal

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

State the decision contract

Use the question “How can two multicriteria scores support a portfolio comparison without hiding the assumptions that generate them?” as a contract: name the owner, deadline, scope and alternatives before collecting more material. The matrix compares market attractiveness and competitive strength only when criteria, weights, evidence and uncertainty remain visible. Record what is deliberately outside scope, who can challenge the framing and what consequence follows from postponement. This prevents an attractive framework, actor list or market story from silently replacing the decision that the analysis is meant to support.

  • Owner and deadline
  • Comparable alternatives
  • Explicit boundary
  • Cost of delay

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Build an inspectable evidence register

For every material statement, retain the original source, publication date, observation period, method, unit and relevant population. Distinguish observed facts, calculated estimates, interview judgements and assumptions. Connect the register to the promised output: A multicriteria portfolio map with its evidence, uncertainty and review conditions. Missing or contradictory evidence remains visible with a responsible owner and a collection action; it is never converted into certainty merely to complete the page.

  • Primary source
  • Method and unit
  • Confidence
  • Evidence gap

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Apply one operating convention

Define the rules before applying the analysis: inclusion criteria, identifiers, comparison set, calculation or coding convention, treatment of missing values and version date. Reproduce the same convention across every option or actor. Use the page checks as acceptance tests, beginning with “Separate external attractiveness from internal competitive evidence.” A conclusion is usable only when another practitioner can reconstruct how the inputs became the displayed result and identify where judgement entered.

  • Stable definitions
  • Common comparison
  • Versioned inputs
  • Reproducible transformation

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Test uncertainty and rival interpretations

Challenge the preferred interpretation with at least one plausible alternative, contradictory observation and sensitivity test. Separate association from prediction and never infer intent, power or causality from a position, score or visual proximity alone. The standing limit remains: Aggregation improves readability but can hide a critical weakness, dependency or constraint that no score can compensate. State which uncertainty is most likely to reverse the conclusion and what additional observation would discriminate between the competing explanations.

  • Alternative explanation
  • Counterevidence
  • Sensitivity
  • Decision-changing uncertainty

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Record the action and reopening rule

Turn the analysis into a dated decision record rather than a static page. Preserve the selected option, rejected alternatives, objections, accepted risks and first reversible action. Name the signal, numerical or qualitative threshold, review owner and review date that will confirm, adapt, pause or reopen the decision. Link every later update to its author and reason so that the history remains understandable when evidence or market conditions change.

  • Decision trace
  • First reversible step
  • Review threshold
  • Named owner

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Definition and decision scope

Define GE–McKinsey matrix in operational terms before using it. State the decision unit, market boundary, time horizon and comparison set. The method must answer “How can two multicriteria scores support a portfolio comparison without hiding the assumptions that generate them?” without quietly expanding its scope or replacing the decision with a descriptive classification.

  • Operational definition
  • Decision unit
  • Boundary
  • Time horizon

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Scope acceptance test

Ask an independent reviewer to identify what is included, excluded and held constant. The page passes only when two practitioners would analyse the same unit and period. Ambiguity is recorded as an assumption and assigned an owner before calculation or categorisation begins.

  • Same unit
  • Same period
  • Explicit exclusions
  • Named owner

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Marketing case and alternatives

Translate the method into a concrete marketing case with a named customer, offer, market or portfolio question. Preserve at least two genuine alternatives plus the status quo. The expected deliverable is A multicriteria portfolio map with its evidence, uncertainty and review conditions. and must make trade-offs visible rather than presenting one preferred option as inevitable.

  • Concrete case
  • Status quo
  • Two alternatives
  • Visible trade-offs

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Decision-question test

Verify that the question can be answered by a choice, commitment or learning action. A broad request to understand the market is not sufficient. Record who decides, by when, which resources are constrained and what would happen if no option were selected.

  • Decision owner
  • Deadline
  • Constraint
  • Cost of no decision

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Why this method and not another

Explain which part of the decision GE–McKinsey matrix illuminates and which parts require another lens. Compare it with a plausible alternative method. Selection should follow the uncertainty to reduce, not habit, visual appeal or the availability of a familiar two-by-two matrix.

  • Relevant uncertainty
  • Alternative method
  • Selection rationale
  • Complementary lens

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Intuition and mechanism

Describe the mechanism in plain language before introducing labels or scores: what changes, for whom, through which link and over what period. Mark the link as observed, estimated or assumed. A diagram may aid understanding, but proximity or quadrant membership never establishes causality.

  • Actor
  • Change
  • Mechanism
  • Evidence status

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Data requirements and dictionary

List every required field with definition, unit, geography, population, observation period, source and refresh date. Distinguish missing data from zero and not applicable. Use stable identifiers so updates reconcile the same market, segment, competitor or business unit across versions.

  • Field definition
  • Unit
  • Observation period
  • Stable identifier

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Source and comparability control

Check primary sources first and document transformations applied to secondary data. Compare like with like: currency, nominal or real values, calendar period, perimeter and denominator must match. Any conversion or proxy retains its formula, reason, confidence and effect on the decision.

  • Primary source
  • Comparable basis
  • Conversion rule
  • Proxy confidence

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Formalisation and conventions

Write the formula, coding rule or classification convention used by GE–McKinsey matrix. Define every symbol, scale anchor, weight and sign. Explain whether a higher value is favourable, adverse or merely descriptive, and prevent a weighted average from compensating a binding constraint.

  • Formula or rule
  • Scale anchors
  • Weight meaning
  • Binding constraints

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Numerical integrity check

Recalculate totals, ratios and classifications from the displayed inputs. Check units, denominators, rounding and missing-value treatment. Preserve the unrounded value for reproduction and display the rounded value consistently. Any threshold is labelled as an agreed convention rather than a universal fact.

  • Recalculation
  • Denominator
  • Rounding
  • Threshold status

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Procedure and responsibilities

Describe the sequence from collection to decision: frame, gather, qualify, calculate, challenge, compare and record. For each step, identify the responsible role, input, output and acceptance condition. Separate mechanical operations from judgements that require an accountable human decision.

  • Ordered steps
  • Responsible role
  • Input and output
  • Human judgement

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Worked-example verification

Provide a compact example whose inputs, intermediate operations and final result can be followed line by line. Use realistic but explicitly simulated values. The narrative conclusion must match the numbers, while alternative assumptions show how a different result could legitimately emerge.

  • Visible inputs
  • Intermediate steps
  • Matching conclusion
  • Alternative result

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Assumptions as testable questions

Convert each material assumption into a question, observable indicator, source, threshold and review date. Separate assumptions testable with current data from those requiring an experiment, interview or future observation. Do not mark an assumption as validated merely because stakeholders agree with it.

  • Testable question
  • Indicator
  • Threshold
  • Review date

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Diagnostic response plan

For every diagnostic attached to GE–McKinsey matrix, state what is calculated or observed, how to interpret it and what action follows when it fails. A warning without a response rule is incomplete. Record whether failure blocks the decision, changes confidence or triggers additional evidence.

  • Observed signal
  • Interpretation
  • Failure action
  • Decision impact

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Robustness and sensitivity

Vary the most uncertain inputs, scale anchors and weights across defensible ranges. Test alternative market boundaries and plausible missing values. Report which changes leave the recommendation stable and which reverse it; do not hide instability behind a single central estimate or colour.

  • Input ranges
  • Alternative boundary
  • Missing-value case
  • Ranking reversal

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Counterevidence and rival explanation

Search deliberately for observations that contradict the preferred reading. Compare at least one rival mechanism and identify the evidence that would discriminate between them. Distinguish association, prediction and causal claims, and reduce the wording whenever the available design cannot support the stronger claim.

  • Counterevidence
  • Rival mechanism
  • Discriminating test
  • Claim level

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Interpretation with calibrated language

Interpret the result at the level supported by the evidence. Keep this boundary visible: Aggregation improves readability but can hide a critical weakness, dependency or constraint that no score can compensate. Explain magnitude, uncertainty, business relevance and affected option separately. Avoid converting a descriptive category into a forecast or a forecast into proof of causal impact.

  • Magnitude
  • Uncertainty
  • Business relevance
  • Claim boundary

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

What may and may not be concluded

Publish two explicit lists: conclusions supported by the analysis and conclusions that remain unsupported. Include tempting overclaims such as guaranteed performance, universal superiority or inferred intent. Connect every permitted conclusion to the exact calculation, observation or source that supports it.

  • Supported claims
  • Forbidden claims
  • Traceable basis
  • No guarantee

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Decision, use and avoidance conditions

State the marketing action the result can inform, the first reversible step and the conditions under which the method should not be used. Preserve rejected alternatives and objections. The recommendation remains conditional on the evidence, constraints and review signals documented on the page.

  • Conditional action
  • Reversible step
  • Avoidance case
  • Rejected alternatives

METHOD QUALITY PROTOCOL

Reproducibility, sources and governance

Version the dataset, dictionary, parameters, code or worksheet and expected output. Record source localisers, licences and checksums where artefacts are retained. Name the reviewer, publication status and reopening signal. A future team must reproduce the result without guessing hidden conventions.

  • Versioned artefacts
  • Source localisers
  • Independent review
  • Reopening signal

LIMIT

Aggregation improves readability but can hide a critical weakness, dependency or constraint that no score can compensate.